Finding certainty in an uncertain world

By Marc Hobell, Ordnance Survey

Over the past 20 years Britain’s national infrastructure has undergone a dramatic transformation, writes Dr Marc Hobell of Ordnance Survey. As a society we have moved on from a moderate dependence on a series of loosely coupled systems and assets. We now live with a near complete dependency on huge networks of distributed goods and services.

The modern, complex interdependency which has come to characterise our infrastructure means that a failure of any aspect can quickly cascade with unexpected or unforeseeable outcomes. Crucial to being able to respond in such an environment is the timely availability of data and a shared operational understanding among ad-hoc groups of infrastructure operators and responders.
In recent years we’ve seen geography underpin the response to a range of different national and regional emergencies ranging from flooding and terrorism to pandemic flu – all of which have endangered parts of our critical infrastructure. Then, in October 2010, the Government published the new National Security Strategy, and set out the kind of threats we can expect to face now and in the future, including that posed by cyber-terrorism.

Of course, Ordnance Survey doesn’t map ‘cyberspace’, but it does map physical space, and a cyber attack can be used to cause damage to the real world and to real people, potentially with an even greater impact than more traditional threats. For example, the Stuxnet worm computer virus attack on the Bushehr power plant in Iran last year, if replicated in the UK, could shut down power supplies on a potentially widespread scale, having a massive impact on the real world and on real people.

Planning and responding efficiently to these emergencies with reduced funding and resources is increasingly important, particularly in a financially constrained world. The Civil Contingency Act Review, Sir Michael Pitts review into the 2008 floods and the INSPIRE Directive, all focus on the importance of integrated services and for the better sharing of information. As such, the work Ordnance Survey has been involved in around using geography to underpin contingency planning through its Mapping for Emergencies service, and Exercise Orion, remains very relevant in the context of a world where danger is as likely to flow down a network cable as from a flooded river or suspect package.

How location data is supporting emergency planning
Geographic information (GI) from Ordnance Survey is available to every government department, local authority and the majority of infrastructure providers in the country, and many are doing fantastic work, using it to help them reduce risk. Given the myriad of differing organisations involved in emergency planning and response, geography is really the only way of quickly visualising information in a consistent and integrated way.
Through the use of GI based emergency planning tools, Bristol City Council has reduced the amount of time it takes to produce analysis and reports of relevant geographic data from 6 hours to 20 minutes. This huge improvement supports those involved in the response effort, providing rapid access to accurate and detailed data. This enhances the decision-making process, provides a clear platform to inform communication between responders and will essentially speed up response times and save lives. GI helps provide the full picture helping to pinpoint emerging risks and highlight the consequence of loss. It also identifies sites with special requirements such as hospitals and schools that will be a priority for supply or evacuation, or places that are useful during an emergency such asleisure centres.

Not the whole story

Of course, simply locating an incident and where it might have a potential impact is in itself useful, but not the whole story. It does not take away the operational decision making process, but provides a common situational platform. By linking secondary information to geographic data, such as the locations of hydrants, places likely to home vulnerable people or building classifications, it adds a valuable dimension to any analysis, helping to inform resource planning and incident prediction. During the flooding in Tewksbury, geographic data helped pinpoint where flood defence barriers would be most needed, as well as the areas likely to be most in danger of flooding. When roads become impassable, it has also formed the basis for quickly identifying the best route for emergency vehicles and vital supplies.
This intelligence can also inform contingency planning so that the most suitable routes to major public sites or high risk locations can be identified in advance, whilst taking into account areas that might be flooded or otherwise inaccessible. Geographic information was used in response to flooding in Caerphilly, in 2008, when two and a half inches of rain fell in a single day. This led to significant widespread flooding affecting people, property and infrastructure. Residents were evacuated from their homes, and some key travel routes, (including the main railway line) were closed either by flooding or landslides. Several schools were also closed and a residential home evacuated. An initial diversion took 42 miles to navigate – equivilant to the distance from Westminster to Brighton!

Using GIS tools, the council’s Emergency Planning Team helped coordinate the response. GI was used to visualise the relationship between reports of flooding and potential high risk locations, such as homes for the elderly, schools and community centres. Making specific use of GI, enabled staff to place multiple reports into a single context, helping to identify patterns in the incident while ensuring people and assets were moved using the safest possible routes.

Whatever the incident, whether it’s flooding, a cyber attack or something completely different, GI provides a common platform on which to undertake a strategic assessment – from a regional level down to the impact on individual properties – to inform scenario planning and explore options and their consequences. It can feed in to all stages of the process – prevention, protection, response and recovery, and can improve the quality and timeliness of decision-making, providing a single view of complex information, helping to reduce duplication and cut costs.